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By Bill Bartel
WASHINGTON
The Virginia Democrat and U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, a Georgia Republican, are close to introducing a complex bill that would cut trillions in federal spending, raise some taxes and lower others, and spread the pain of cutting the federal deficit among just about everyone in America.
Nothing will be sacred. Everything is open for cutbacks or change to get spending under control, including defense, Social Security and Medicare. Look for smaller tax write-offs on house payments or charitable contributions. Higher gasoline taxes are likely.
The political cost is so high, Warner said in a recent interview, that the entire plan has to be a single bill - one up-or-down vote.
"The only way you realistically can get there is if you get... one package where everybody can say, 'I don't like a lot of it, but the sum of the good it does is worth the pain it will cost,' " Warner said. "At the end of the day, this is not going to be a painless process."
The two senators, who first made known their intentions last month, are basing the legislation on the presidential debt commission, which in December proposed spending cuts and revenue changes that cut federal spending by $4 trillion over 10 years. The national debt stands at more than $14 trillion.
The commission warned that unless changes are made, by 2025 entitlement programs and debt payments will require every dollar taken in by the federal government.
"Every other federal government activity - from national defense and homeland security to transportation and energy - will have to be paid for with borrowed money," the commission said in its report, called "Moment of Truth."
Months before the commission's report, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed similar alarm. "The biggest threat we have to our national security is our debt," he said, noting that the 2012 interest payment on the debt will be $571 billion, which is close to what is spent on national defense.
Warner, Chambliss and other elected leaders acknowledge that members of Congress and presidential candidates have promised for decades to cut spending and federal bureaucracy.
Promising to cut is easy; actually voting to eliminate popular tax breaks or programs and resisting the entrenched interest groups will take some steely nerves, they said.
For the survival of the country, Chambliss said, it has to be done.
"Here's what is going to happen.... Everybody is going to have their ox gored," Chambliss said. "It's going to be tough. I cannot overemphasize that, but this is unique from the standpoint that the issue is so serious."
The two senators' proposal isn't the only plan out there.
Republicans in the House, fresh from their election successes in the fall, are proposing steep reductions of their own. Mostly recently, several GOP congressmen last week proposed $2.5 trillion in cuts over 10 years. A key difference with their plans and the debt commission is that GOP House proposals specifically exclude defense spending, Social Security and Medicare.
That won't work, Warner said, because those expenses are among the largest parts of the budget.
Increasing revenues - meaning taxes - also is required "because the hole is so deep," he said.
Chambliss and Warner's plan would involve streamlining the tax code to abolish or reduce about $1 trillion in popular tax breaks for individuals and corporations. Homeowners, for example, could see their mortgage interest deduction replaced with a tax credit that would apply only to the first $500,000 of any mortgage. Tax breaks for second homes would be abolished.
Most of that money would be used to lower income tax rates, but a portion would reduce the deficit.
More money would be raised for Social Security benefits by increasing the payroll tax on large salaries and reducing benefits in the future. The retirement age would be slowly increased to 68 years by about 2050 and 69 by 2075.
Chambliss and Warner expect to have more than a dozen co-sponsors when they introduce the bill in a few weeks. The two have been organizing informal private meetings since last summer with senators to talk about the debt crisis and to educate themselves on the depth of the problem.
Their hope is to get the bill approved this year before the presidential race heats up in 2012.
If it's passed, any changes would be instituted gradually and wouldn't begin for a year or more, Warner said. The economy is too fragile to withstand any upheaval right now, he said.
The two senators predict resistance will be strong, as was seen when the debt commission's plan was announced.
The National Association of Home Builders, for example, put out a news release headlined, "Mortgage Interest Deduction Under Attack."
AARP, perhaps the strongest lobby for retired people, isn't happy with the proposal either.
"Social Security is money American workers put in," AARP Virginia spokeswoman Ginger Thompson McDaniel said. "Social Security didn't contribute to the deficit, so it shouldn't be cut to try to reduce the deficit."
Warner argues that Congress has little choice, but he also believes that groups such as AARP have be persuaded to "give a little."
Both he and Chambliss say it can't become a fight between the two political parties. While the act may only be symbolic, the two will sit side by side in the House chambers Tuesday as a show of solidarity when President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address.
"If we have meaningful reductions in spending, I think Republicans are more inclined to look at the revenue side," Chambliss said. "I've never voted for a tax increase and hope I never have to. But you can't take that off the table."
Both acknowledge they are taking a personal political risk and the plan will cost them some political capital.
"You can't take this stuff to the grave with you, so you might as well spend it," Warner said.
He and Chambliss said legislators are going to have to find courage in numbers.
"Folks are going to have to step up to the plate," Chambliss said. "I think my colleagues will."